Despite Some Recent Bumps, Signs Point to Recovery Continuing
Posted on Tue, Aug 17, 2010
Despite Some Recent Bumps, Signs Point to Recovery Continuing
Ceridian-UCLA | August 16, 2010
All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
Though the PCI fell significantly in June, a careful examination of the daily data revealed that June was not as bad as the headline number suggested because of a late Memorial Day and due to the second half of June being stronger than the first. This more positive interpretation of the June data has now been confirmed with a strong July PCI.
Year-over-year growth for July of 8 percent represented the eighth straight month of mid to high single-digit year-over-year percentage growth after approximately two years of decline. The sustained growth is welcome news; however, the PCI needs to reach year-over-year growth of 10 to 15 percent in the near term to drive a meaningful increase in employment.
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